Issue link: http://cp.revolio.com/i/734838
THE DATA CENTER JOURNAL | 25 www.datacenterjournal.com unlikely to produce any reversal in the his- torical trend. On the side of tax incentives, a Clinton presidency might yield more opportunities in limited cases—which may or may not include data centers. Regard- less of the outcome, however, data centers will probably feel few (if any) major tax or regulatory effects from this election, except in the area of energy. energy policy e data center industry may feel the greatest effect from this election in the form of energy policy. Although both ma- jor candidates are (naturally) vague on de- tails, Trump proposes to "[s]ave the coal industry and other industries threatened by [Clinton]" and "[l]i restrictions on American energy." Clinton, on the other hand, aims to "[take] bold steps to slash carbon pollution at home and around the world," with a focus on efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources (e.g., solar). Of the two candidates, Clinton is the more likely to support carbon taxes, a carbon-credit exchange or some similar scheme. But given the lingering economic weakness (as the ultra-low interest rates indicate), the political will for such mea- sures is low. Some such policy seemed al- most inevitable during the Barack Obama administration, but it never materialized. e likelihood of a resurgence in the drive toward carbon taxes or something similar is almost certainly proportional to the perceived health of the economy. A dras- tic shi in this direction would increase data center energy expenses—the biggest operating cost—and thus become a major pain point. On the other hand, applicable efficiency incentives might be more likely under Clinton than Trump, but they may be insufficient to balance the costs that other policies impose. More probable, however, are hit- and-miss regulations that yield only small or largely invisible implications for the industry. A Trump presidency would likely produce few new major energy regulations—particularly if Republicans retain control of Congress—but the situ- ation could change in two or four years aer a new election or if the economy improves markedly. e situation may also depend on the public perception of climate change (or the lack thereof ), a highly contentious and politicized issue that Democrats tend to embrace and Republicans tend to reject. econoMy Industries are interconnected, and data centers are no exception. us, the condition of the broader economy will play a fundamental role in how the data center market fares over the next four years. Of course, the president has only limited power in this regard, but he or she can take steps to improve or exacerbate the current direction. Economic signals are currently mixed, with major stock indices near all-time highs but wealth and income gaps also growing. e Federal Reserve's zero-interest-rate policy makes saving a fruitless proposition for many, but it en- courages and even rewards borrowing on the part of speculators as well as govern- ments. Assuming debt has some mean- ing—it must either be paid off or lead to painful defaults—a financial reckoning is on its way. Whether that reckoning is mild or catastrophic remains to be seen, as does whether it will take place during the next presidential administration. e data center industry has felt the ups and downs of the new millennium: the booms as well as the dot-com bust and the Great Recession. e widest gap be- tween recessions in the last 50-plus years has been a decade, according to Federal Reserve data. If that trend holds, the next recession will arrive within a few years, potentially souring the re-election hopes of the forthcoming victor. But it would also mean another difficult stretch that the data center industry must weather with the rest of the economy. Unfortunately, neither candidate appears able or willing to make the kinds of difficult changes that could avert such an event. third-party candidates e present dominance of the two-party political system in the U.S. essentially means third-party candidates have no real chance of winning the presi- dency—at least in this election. e rela- tively low appeal of the major candidates with their own parties, however, could portend more choices in the future, but that's mere speculation. For such reasons, this article excludes these alternative candidates and how they might help—or hurt—the industry. conclUsions For the data center industry, the differences between the two major-party candidates are largely negligible apart from one or two issues—most notably, energy. Even there, however, a divided government (e.g., a Clinton presidency and a Republican Congress) could mean little policy change. e economy, a major concern in many elections, seems to be beyond the aid of any one president. us, even here, the outcome of the election may be of little consequence. Moreover, this cursory analysis assumes that the candidates will make an honest effort to stick with the policies they outline on their websites and elsewhere. But such an assumption is easily dashed by three words from the 1988 campaign: "Read my lips." Although both major candidates are (naturally) vague on details, Trump proposes to "[s]ave the coal industry and other industries threatened by [Clinton]" and "[l] ift restrictions on American energy." Clinton, on the other hand, aims to "[take] bold steps to slash carbon pollution at home and around the world," with a focus on efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources (e.g., solar).