Issue link: http://cp.revolio.com/i/356
38 Feb 2009 AI bIo enhAnCeD nAno neURo hUMoR FoReVeR YoUng First Steps Towards Postscarcity: or Why the Current Financial Crisis is the End of the World As We Know It (And Why You Should Feel Fine) I t's never easy to see your hard-won earnings disappear. When you open your 401K and see it's just lost another 30%, you think: holy moly, there goes my retirement. Yeah, it's a natural reaction, but that doesn't mean it's the right one. We live in a world of accelerating change. Tomorrow won't necessarily look anything like today. not even slightly. In fact, it looks to me like the current financial crisis is the first step from a scarcity economy to a postscarcity scenario. Let's be clear on this. We're not going to wake up in a magical world where iPods and McMansions grow on trees overnight. before that can happen, every part of today's value chain has to be overturned. everything. Production of raw materials, transport and refining, design and engineering, manufacturing, distribution . . . even our own sense of worth. So, if today's financial crisis is the first step, where do we go from here? Jason Stoddard LATE SCARCITY: WHERE WE ARE TODAY Keynesian? Marxist? With derivatives and CMos and other abstractions propping up the value of investments, neither school of thought may be entirely valid. And with global population growth slowing, we're going to have to re-evaluate the "good companies will be growing at 5% a year, forever" assumption that's been the basis of corporate valuation. We're also already starting to see some examples of near post- scarcity. Consider computers and communications. If you're willing to use a computer that's a couple of years old, you can probably find a hand-me-down for free, and then happily talk to your friends around the world on Skype using free public wi-fi. or consider that in the last Depression, the main worry was simply getting enough food. Today, the marketplace is more worried about maintaining the marketing budgets of 170 different kinds of toothpaste than about ensuring that everyone has toothpaste. There's a lot of padding in the system. Couple a financial crisis with this overweight, inefficient system, and you have the stage set for the first transition to postscarcity: a comprehensive rethink of our concept of value.