Issue link: http://cp.revolio.com/i/356
32 Feb 2009 AI bIo enhAnCeD nAno neURo hUMoR FoReVeR YoUng A t the Singularity 2008 conference, a small group of smart people had Vernor Vinge surrounded and were pressing him to metaphorically roll them bones and read our civilization's horoscope. Vinge (interviewed in this issue), a retired professor of mathematics from San Diego State University and leading hard science fi ction writer, had coined the term the Singularity, referring to a time when technological change would become so rapid, because of the creation of greater-than-human artifi cial intelligence, that predicting what would occur post-Singularity would become nearly impossible. The concept of the Singularity was embraced by other writers, ultimately spawning a culture of people who live, in part, to read the signs and portents of this astonishing event. In some formulations, the Singularity is the biggest change that humanity will ever create or experience. Ray Kurzweil, already a major fi gure as the result of a number of books including The Age of Spiritual Machines, has reached a sort-of pinnacle of public notice after publishing The Singularity is near in 2005 and viewing the world through a Singularitarian (yes, a real word) lens. In the book, Kurzweil gives his evidence that US gDP growth is exponential and contiguous. or rather, he posits that due to the exponential nature of past US economic growth, the future will also see continuous exponential economic growth. but will this growth be impacted as we experience an economic slowdown and global fi nancial crisis? Will we still have all the good stuff that futurists and hard science fi ction writers promise, including biotech that increases longevity, nanotechnology that revolutionizes manufacturing, information technology that improves productivity? And what about the Singularity? Speaking to the Singularity only, Vinge opined that nothing on the economic horizon was going to slow it down, because it only takes a few companies to keep up with Moore's Law and thus to make the breakthroughs that will bring this strong AI to fruition. From Vinge's perspective, the Singularity is still near. but others look at the past and present and see indications that the future (a view of a world utterly transformed by technological change) has been cancelled. In a recent article for Investor's business Daily entitled, "Venture Capital Theme of the Day: Death," brian Deagon stated that only six venture capital backed companies had gone public in 2008, the fewest in over thirty years, and that the value of venture-based acquisitions fell 42% from the same 2007 period to $11.2 billion. Deagon quotes national Venture Capital Association President Mark heesen saying, "(I)f this goes on for another year or two, it means we won't have a fresh crop of new companies." Since venture funds typically exist for eight years, and raise their money from a small fraction of total investments made by college endowments and other funds with a long-term investment horizon — and because many funds have lost half their value since September — and because the US and world economies are likely to get much worse before they get better, it is almost certain that we won't have a pipeline fi lled with well-funded start-ups ready to go public over the next seven years. And this could have a chilling effect on both the business and academic roles in creating the future that both communities have performed so superbly over the last three decades. A bit of history may be in order. once upon a time there was an artifi cial intelligence/expert system software industry, with companies focused exclusively on commercializing AI software and hardware. An AI software company called IntelliCorp (which started as Intelligenetics) went public, and its rivals were also expected to follow suit. Then came the "AI Winter." Funding dried up. The bloom was off the rose, and though a number of the programming and interface conventions of that day have found their way into other software, those of us who were there at the time (I was in charge of the Southwest U for IntelliCorp) is the future CAnCelleD or just postponed? ALeX LIghTMAn A bit of history may be in order. once upon a time there was an artifi cial intelligence/expert system software industry, with companies focused exclusively on commercializing AI software and hardware. An AI software company called IntelliCorp (which started as Intelligenetics) went public, and its rivals were also expected to follow suit. Then came the "AI Winter." Funding dried up. The bloom was off the rose, and though a number of the programming and interface conventions of that day have found their way into other software, those of us who were there at the time (I was in charge of the Southwest U for IntelliCorp)