Issue link: https://cp.revolio.com/i/5219
32 winter 2009 Factories of tomorrow will be organized around converging technologies and increased human-machine capabilities as intelligent environments that achieve the maximum benefits of both mass production and custom design. Robots and software agents will be far more useful for human beings, because they will operate on principles compatible with human goals, awareness, and personality. Agriculture and the food industry will greatly increase yields and reduce spoilage through networks of cheap, smart sensors that constantly monitor the condition and needs of plants, animals, and farm products. The human body will be more durable, healthier, more energetic, easier to repair, and more resistant to many kinds of stress, biological threats, and aging processes. The work of scientists will be revolutionized by the importation of approaches pioneered in other sciences, for example, genetic research employing principles from natural language processing and cultural research employing principles from genetics. 2025 WhaT haPPenS When 21 ST cenTURy TechnologIeS conVeRge? The National Science Foundation (NSF) and a formidable-sounding government subcommittee called the National Science and Technology Council on Nanoscale Science, Engineering, and Technology have published a number of reports exploring the convergence of the NBIC technologies as the result of a series of conferences between 2001 and 2006. The chief application areas they've identified include: expanding human cognition and communication, Improving human health and physical capabilities, enhancing group and societal outcomes, Strengthening national security, and Unifying science and education. The convergence, these reports suggest, will be based on the "unity of nature at the nanoscale" along with technology integration at the nanoscale, key transforming tools, and the pursuit of improvements in human performance. "A revolution is occurring in science and technology, based on the recently developed ability to measure, manipulate and organize matter on the nanoscale — 1 to 100 billionths of a meter," writes William Sims Bainbridge, co-director of Human-Centered Computing at the NSF and co-editor with Mihail Roco of several NSF publications on NBIC. "At the nanoscale, physics, chemistry, biology, materials science, and engineering converge toward the same principles and tools. As a result, progress in nanoscience will have very far- reaching impact." Some of the application areas identified in the NSF publications are far-reaching, but the pace of proposed development — including social and political factors — is perhaps somewhat more conservative than the exponential acceleration predicted by Kurzweil and acknowledged by Joy. let's take a closer look. Expanding Human Cognition and Communication "The human mind can be significantly enhanced through technologically augmented cognition, perception, and communication," writes Bainbridge. "Research will focus both on the brain and the ambient socio-cultural milieu, which both shapes and is shaped by individual thought and behavior." Specific technology includes personal sensory device interfaces and enhanced tools for creativity along with continued humanization of computers, robots, and information systems. Improving Human Health and Physical Capabilities "Nano-bio sensors and processors will contribute greatly to research and to development of treatments, including those resulting from bioinformatics, genomics and proteomics," suggests Bainbridge. Specific technologies include implants based on nanotechnology and regenerative biosystems that will start to replace human organs, and nanoscale machines unobtrusively providing needed medical intervention. Advances in cognitive science will provide insights to help people avoid unhealthy lifestyles and information technology will create virtual environment tools to facilitate diagnoses and train medical professionals. Enhancing Group and Societal Outcomes "Nano-enabled microscale data devices will identify every product and place, and individuals will merge their personal databases as they choose which groups and interaction networks to join," writes Bainbridge. "Group productivity tools will radically enhance the ability of people to imagine and create revolutionary new products and services based on the integration of the four technologies from the nanoscale." National Security The combination of nanotechnology and information technology will produce "sensor nets capable of instantly detecting chemical, biological, radiological and explosive threats and able to direct immediate and effective countermeasures," says Bainbridge. And here come the robots and drones — "uninhabited combat vehicles and human-machine interfaces" will enhance both attack capabilities and survivability. The hope is that developments initially achieved at high cost for defense purposes will be transferred over time to low-cost civilian applications for the general benefit of society. Unifying Science and Education The NSF studies conclude that scientific education needs radical transformation from elementary school through post-graduate training. Convergence of previously separate scientific and engineering disciplines "cannot take place without the emergence of new kinds of people who understand multiple fields in depth and can intelligently work to integrate them," states Bainbridge.