Issue link: http://cp.revolio.com/i/5039
19 www.hplusmagazine.com My first destination on my quest for wisdom about the Chinese Singularity was a visit to Temple university AGI researcher Dr. Pei Wang, a long-time uS resident who visits his home country of China each summer. Pei expressed a milder version of Hugo's sentiments: "I think China is among the most likely places (though not the only one) where the first truly/generally intelligent system will be created... Given the population size and education level of China, its chance is quite large... there are profound intellectual resources to make AGI happen." Pei points out that "one of China's major advantages is the lack of strong skepticism about AGI resulting from past failures." The uS and Japan have spent large sums on AI research in past decades with disappointing results, and as a consequence are particularly skeptical of AI relative to other research areas. China never had that experience, and is making its first serious foray into AI in an era blessed with more powerful computers and deeper knowledge of cognition and computer science. Pei also noted that the research community in China tends to favor incremental research over riskier attempts at paradigm-shifting progress. This seems to have held true in the AI field, so far: Chinese AI researchers have made important innovations in multiple areas such as fuzzy systems, genetic algorithms, machine translation and spatiotemporal logic, but haven't yet launched any AI revolutions. Dr. Min Jiang, an assistant professor in Hugo's Artificial Brain lab specializing in AI cognition and formal logic, indicated a factor counterbalancing this conservatism: "In many fields, China today is a follower. But maybe this is part of the reason China wants to spend research money on innovative projects. It can be considered a 'tuition fee' and an investment in the future. Even if some projects fail, we can learn lots of things from the experience." The funding Hugo's lab has received seems to be evidence for this perspective. And this spirit of experimentation is precisely what will be needed to create AGI and other radical Singularity-enabling technologies. Min offered further insights into China: "I think the most important advantage (or disadvantage) is the [political and governmental] system. If the power circle thinks a project is crucial, we do that with all the strength of the country: for example — A-bomb, spacecraft." Another example is the First Solar initiative launched in September 2009, a 10-year project aimed at blanketing 25 square miles of Inner Mongolia with solar panels, generating 2 billion watts of power, enough to light up three million homes. When the Chinese government really wants to do something, they think big. This combination — a willingness to experiment with new ideas, and a willingness to put massive funding behind selected initiatives — is intriguing. If the Chinese fund an experimental Singularity-relevant project, and it yields sufficiently impressive results to excite the "power circle," dramatic things might happen. This is exactly what Hugo has in mind with his "CABA" proposal, which he presented at the Oriental Technology Forum in Shanghai this October: "What I propose is that the Chinese government should create a 'CABA' (Chinese Artificial Brain Administration) over the next 5-10 years, consisting of thousands of scientists and engineers to design artificial brains for the Chinese home-robot industry and other applications. CABA would do for artificial brains what the CNSA (Chinese National Space Administration) does for space, i.e. it employs thousands of scientists and engineers to design and control rockets for China's space applications." Wildly ambitious? Perhaps. But so is covering 25 square miles of Mongolia with solar panels. I found Western entrepreneurs operating technology firms in China to be the most skeptical voices regarding the possibility of a Chinese Singularity. I interviewed two such individuals in depth. Both are Singularity optimists, and both were concerned that their remarks be kept anonymous, to avoid potential harm to their Chinese business work. Both put the odds of a Chinese Singularity launch at less than 5%, and they gave similar reasons: they consider Chinese engineers on the whole If the Chinese fund an experimental Singularity-relevant project, and it yields sufficiently impressive results to excite the "power circle," dramatic things might happen. project, and it yields sufficiently impressive results to excite project, and it yields sufficiently impressive results to excite