Issue link: http://cp.revolio.com/i/207723
lion. The research firm originally estimated 4.2% growth for 2013 in its 4Q12 report, but it revised this forecast to 4.1%, 2.0% and finally 0.8% in subsequent quarters. Given that the so-called fiscal cliff never materialized as the economic threat some observers predicted, this minimal growth in a relatively strong industry raises serious questions about the future. On the employment side, the TechServe Alliance estimated 5.93% year-overyear growth in IT employment from June 2012, reaching an all-time high and continuing a strong upward trend following a lackluster 2011 and mildly improving 2012. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the information market fell from 7.3% in August of 2012 to 6.6% in August of 2013—although BLS numbers regarding employment are not necessarily indicative of the actual situation, since they may not account for those who have given up looking for work or are underemployed. The market for technology stocks has rallied, with the Nasdaq composite approaching 4,000, greatly exceeding prerecession highs and outmatched only by the dot-com bubble when the index topped 5,000. But despite the apparent good news in this regard for IT companies, the stock market has shown a major disconnect from prevailing macroeconomic trends. Furthermore, the continuing Federal Reserve policy of "quantitative easing," which is essentially a spigot of newly printed money flowing into markets at a rate of at least $85 billion per month, is no doubt inflating security prices beyond their actual value. The outlook for IT is a mixed bag. Although it is a relatively stable sector thanks to increasing reliance on computing technology by consumers and businesses, it is not immune to macroeconomic trends. Despite ongoing claims of an economic recovery, real growth beyond rising stockmarket prices is largely absent. Even the uptick in the housing market has been laid more at the feet of investors taking advantage of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy than at the feet of individuals buying homes (on credit). IT, along with other industries, cannot escape the implications of out-of-bounds government spending. Government debt has well exceeded the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), and spending at all levels amounts to almost 40% of GDP. With no end in sight to nearly trillion-dollar federal deficits, the alternatives in the macro- www.datacenterjournal.com economic space essentially boil down to government default when interest rates rise, causing payments to consume more and more of the budget, or inflation when the Federal Reserve's effort to keep interest rates below market values finally causes a collapse in the value of the dollar. The precise effects of either of these scenarios are difficult to predict, however, although just the increased uncertainty will likely cause significant negative repercussions. As long as the macroeconomic ship stays on a steady course, however—and that could be for years—demand for IT services will keep the industry on a positive track. Conclusions The biggest story of 2013 will likely remain the NSA spying scandal, which has rocked not only society in general but IT and data centers in particular. But in the shadows of this scandal, the industry saw a respectable (but not stellar) year of improvements. Trends such as big data, the cloud and automation progressed as companies aimed to glean more value from their information and infrastructure and to reduce costs. Not to be ignored, however, are the perennial issues of energy and security. The issue of security intersects with the NSA story, as well as the normal measurescountermeasures battle of companies and hackers. Data centers continued to pursue greater energy efficiency, but a Digital Realty Trust survey indicated that the average power usage effectiveness (PUE) of these facilities is 2.9—a high number that says almost two out of every three watts consumed go to non-IT tasks such as cooling, lighting and so on. Furthermore, the regulatory environment surrounding energy production is tightening, with President Barack Obama's climate action plan targeting stricter controls of coal-fired plants. Alternative energy has yet to show sustainability as a competing source apart from government subsidies, and the ongoing Fukushima nuclear disaster has soured many on nuclear power. As Moore's Law winds down over coming years, and as society grapples with the role of technology and the fate of privacy, the implications for IT and data centers will no doubt be interesting. The industry is at the heart of a number of broader trends beyond its own technological borders, and it will remain a fun spectacle to consider and forecast in 2014 and beyond. n No fire. No damage. No downtime. To keep your facility running 24/7, you must be alerted immediately to the faintest traces of smoke – the first indication of system trouble. FAAST Fire Alarm Aspiration Sensing Technology® from System Sensor provides very early warning of smoke, so you can respond to potential problems before disaster strikes.With FAAST, you can be the first responder. System Sensor is the world leader in smoke detection. To learn more about our award-winning FAAST aspirating smoke detector, contact Conn.Flowers@systemsensor.com or visit: systemsensor.com/faast THE DATA CENTER JOURNAL Reserved. | 5 ©2013 System Sensor. All Rights